Peter Harrell, Non-Resident Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, attorney, and host of the Security Economics Podcast shared with us his take on the anticipated timeline for upcoming tariff and trade actions under the Trump administration.
While some dates are speculative and all are subject to change, the following milestones are expected:
March 4 (Tuesday): A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico is set to take effect unless extended. President Trump, on February 27, reaffirmed that he does not plan to suspend these tariffs for another month. Additionally, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports is scheduled to take effect on this date.
March 12: A 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum is expected to take effect. No country or product exclusions have been announced. Foreign retaliation is anticipated following implementation.
March 24: Deadline for public comments and a hearing on the proposed China Shipbuilding 301 measures, which include a docking fee for Chinese ships at U.S. ports and restrictions on export carriage.
April 1: Reports directed by Trump’s Day 1 America First Trade Executive Order are due. These reports will incorporate findings from Trump’s February 21 memoranda on unfair foreign technology regulations and America Firstinvestment policy.
April 2: Trump has indicated that tariffs on autos and major trading partners (Canada, Mexico, and the EU) could take effect on this date. However, if implemented under Section 232 or Section 301, statutory requirements necessitate formal investigations before tariffs can be imposed, which would take months. It is expected that new investigations under Sections 301 and 232 will be announced, though few tariffs may be enacted immediately. Trump may also explore alternative trade mechanisms, such as IEEPA or Section 338, to expedite tariff implementation.
April–May (Estimated): Trump’s February 21 America First Investment Policy Memo did not specify a timeline for increased restrictions on U.S. investment in China, adjustments to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) mitigation agreements, or the creation of a CFIUS whitelist for allied investors. Action is anticipated in April or May.
November 22: Findings from the February 25 Section 232 investigation into copper are due, though the process could conclude earlier.
December 23: The U.S. Trade Representative’s investigation into Chinese semiconductors is expected to be completed, though early findings are possible.
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